(European Commission, DG XVII, contract no. 2600/E/93-005)
Summary
General framework
The general framework of perspectives for the Greek Electric Energy is largely dependent on decisions and planing connected to: (a) attempts to stabilize and develop the Greek economy in terms of converging the European Union (EU) members' economies, (b) Greek energy policy within the boundaries of the European Union energy policy, (c) attempts of forming and enactment of policies connected to environmental protection, (d) political stability and economical cooperation of all the countries in the European continent, (e) attempts of establishing relations considering energy matters with the countries of the Hemos Peninsula (the Balkans) and the Black Sea.
Legislation
According to its founding 1468/50 legislative act the Public Power Corporation of Greece (PPC) has the exclusive right of producing electric energy from any source, as well as transmitting and distributing it in the entire country. According to the active Presidential executive order 210/73 "About Mining Code Rules", energy minerals are considered property of the Greek State, which holds the exclusive right for their research and exploitation. This right is exercised by the Greek State, in the sector of research by the IGMR (Institute of Geological and Mineral Research) and in the sector of usage by the PPC. Even though legislative acts 1559/89 and 2165/93 allows the existence of private producers, PPC retains the monopoly in the area of production, transmission and distribution of electric energy in Greece.
Generation system
The electric energy generation system of Greece consists of thermal and hydroelectric units and a small percentage of renewable generating. The installed capacity of PPCÆs generation system at the end of 1994 was 9285 MW ( 98% of the total installed capacity), which is distributed to the following unit types, (a) Lignite fired 4533 MW (48,8%), (b) Oil fired 2218,3 MW (28,9%), (c) Hydroelectric 2524,2 MW (27,2%) (d) Renewable forms 23,5MW (0,1%). In the above installed capacity should be added 217,5 MW (2% of the total installed capacity) of self producers, with oil fired station participating with 150MW (83,7%).
The generation system of PPC consists of the following independent electric systems (a) Interconnected mainland generation system (8237 MW), (b) Generation system of Crete (385,7 MW), (c) Generation system of Rhodes (147,3 MW), (d) Generation systems) of small islands (AGS ), (332 MW). The generation unions of the islands are mainly oil fired.
Demand
The total demand (1994) of electricity in Greece was 36955 Gwh, which is distributed to (a) Interconnected 34324 Gwh (including the pumping), (b) Crete 1393 Gwh, (c) Rhodos 396 Gwh (d) AGS 842 Gwh. The peak load demand in 1994 was 5963 MW, while in 1993 was 5498 MW and for the second time the peak appeared during the summer. (August 27, 1993).
Sales of electric energy grew up to 32520 Gwh in 1994 and the percentage per type of use in comparison to 1984 is (a) Residential 33,5%, (31,4%) (b) Agricultural 6,4%, (2,9%) (c) Commercial 19,6%, (12,5%) (d) Industrial 35,8%, (49,2%), (e) Other 4,7%, (4%).
Lignite mines
The total confirmed lignite deposits of Greece reach 6754 mil. ton., from which 3900mil.tn. (58%) are open-cast deposits. According to data of the Institute of Geological and Mineral Research, it is considered possible the provision of units having a total capacity of 6033 MW. It is also considered that under certain conditions there could be a provision for additional units reaching 3150 MW.
Transmission system
The transmission system in Greece (1993), consists of 66kV, (245km), 150 kV, (7417km), 400 kV, (1860km), totaling 9522km. In addition there are 23.4 km underground cables of 150 kV, and 84.75km submarine cables of 66 kV and 150kV.
The distribution system includes lines of 20kV, 15kV and a small number of 22 kV and 6.6 kV in the district of Attiki.
Environmental protection
For the protection of the environment the Greek State has decreed laws, ministry decisions and rules. From the general laws enacted they are mentioned 1360/1976 ô about area arrangement and environmentö, the Presidential Executive Order 1180/1981, and the the law 1650/86 about the ôEnvironmental Protectionö, which forms the basis of the active legislation frame
An amount of 22 bill. Drs. will investigated to reduce sulphur emissions from unit 4 of Megalopoli power station.
International interconnections
PPCÆs electric energy production system already interconnected with the networks of Albania, Yugoslavia and Bulgaria through transmission lines of 150 KV and 400KV, has a maximum potential of annual electric energy exchanges reaching 5340 GWh.
PPC in cooperation with ENEL is promoting the interconnection of Greece and Italy through submarine direct current cables of 500 MW, 400KV. The basic aim of this project is the construction of an electric energy transmission axis connecting Turkey- Greece-Italy.
Future development.
PPCÆs 10 year expansion plan is based on the ôoptimisticö assumption that electric load demand will fluctuate between 3% and 4%. annually. Especially the scenario of 4% annual load increase is unrealistic. In its load forecast does not take into consideration the natural gas penetration into the existing electricity market of domestic hot water and space heating as well as cooking and air-conditioning.
Based on the analysis carried out in section 3.1 the mean annual electricity load rate of increase for the interconnected system, is anticipated to be in the order of 2,5% for the next decade while the islands (Crete, Rhodes, rest of islands) is expected to experience high rates, in the order of 5 - 6%
Investments and Financing
The investment capital requirements needed during the next five years in order to implement the proposed by PPC 10 year expansion plan, are in total of 1.15 trillion Drs. in 1994 constant prices, a most challenging task for PPC.
During recent years, the Greek electric utility has lost quite a ground in building up on its own equity capital. As a consequence of this policy financial liabilities have increased. It is important to note that the 1994 PPC loan liabilities alone were in the order of 160 billion Drs. It should be emphasized that in case the annual revenues do not increase these obligations will considerably worsen and it is unlikely whether the 10 year plan proposed by PPC will be implemented. At present PPCÆs self financing position is in the order of 30%. In case where the tariff policy remains the same PPC will have to resolve to foreign lending as well as suppliers credit with high interest rates in order to finance future generation projects addressed in the 10 year expansion plan. This will place a grate burden on PPCÆs long term debt. The above financial situation will further be burden through the anticipated increase in production cost due to the high cost of natural gas. Contracted price of natural gas for utilization at the very end of the natural gas transmission pipe network at the Lavrion is 14 $/Gcal with a border price of 9 $/Gcal. PPC and DEPA could and should consider alternative ways of overcoming the take or pay contract clause during the first years. A sound options that may be considered at present is the consumption of natural gas in neighboring countries retired and reserve thermal power plants not utilized at present.
Based on the above high financial requirements, the PPC 10 year expansion plan may needs to be revised in terms of the anticipated energy requirements and in terms of the necessary new generation. In case where PPC adopts the alternative expansion plan proposed in section 3.1 the financial liabilities during the next five years, for future generation units, will be relieved by 130 billion Drs.
Energy Conservation & Demand Side Management (DSM) Options
As it has already be mentioned demand side options have not been considered up to now neither has it been taking into account the serious possibility of electricity load substitution by natural gas. Taking into account the high electricity cost, these options should be seriously be taken into consideration in forecasting future load requirements.
A challenging perspective could emerge in case where the management, operations and sales of the natural gas and electricity distribution networks are undertaken by municipalities or counties.
Such a scheme, will promote the introduction of services in the field of rational energy end use and fuel switching. These options with a more realistic electricity and natural gas tariff structure will definitely promote rational use of energy at a regional level, will improve the overall load demand of the electricity and the natural gas systems with positive effects on environmental protection as well. Impacts on the investment plan for new generation will be experienced through the deferral of new power plants with a substantial cash flow relieve for PPC while at the same time the high capital investments of the natural gas system will be well utilized.
Challenging Perspectives
The long due investments in the electricity sector in Greece have resulted in a number of opportunities, especially in the area of new thermoelectric power plant construction. These opportunities have been defined in some detail through the official 10 year PPC expansion plan as well as according to the corrective action proposed herein. However, a number of challenging perspectives appear to have sound implementation characteristics and are in need of further analysis as far as their feasibility is concerned.
Integration of energy rational end use options into the planing process of the electric utility through energy conservation programmes, load management and dispersed generation with renewable energy technologies and cogeneration.
Introduce a more decentralized operational and management scheme of energy distribution companies of both electricity and natural gas controlled by municipalities.
One of the most challenging opportunities for the Greek electricity market for the immediate future is the consideration, promotion and development of the capabilities in the Black Sea countries through an integrated electricity policy. Enforcement of the electric network interconnections, rehabilitation of existing power plants which are presently on cold reserve due to the economic recession, sales of electricity to Greece and Italy, through joint venture schemes can introduce challenging opportunities for the Greek Electricity Market.